Interesting topic, I just bought a '69 280 last Fall for what I thought was a very good price considering what I know now (and am learning more every day) the actual condition of the car is. I can say that the more I read on this topic, the better I feel about mine...!
But I did want to offer some perspective from the vintage VW hobby that I have been immersed in for 30 years this year. I am presently trying to sell one of the 3 vintage VWs I own, a 1950 Sunroof.
What I have observed through this economic downturn, is that, to a large degree, people who had money to invest in good cars before '08, still have money. Conservative and financially prudent folks have weathered the storm OK and perhaps even moreso than ever, are poised to buy a nice vintage car as an investment to enjoy. But their numbers are small, and this means that only the best cars are selling well, while the sub-par beaters and hacks aren't moving at all. You see the same in the housing market when it starts to rebound. The best homes sell quickly, while the others flounder.
And within those high end, best of class cars, there are two buckets: Museum Pieces and drivers. In the VW world, some ultra resto split window Beetles ('53 qnd earlier) have sold in the $50-$70k range in recent years, but they are likely never going to be driven (unfortunately). The better examples of drivers are still selling pretty high, but anything with a lot of incorrect parts, hack work, or poor restos are not selling at all.
Keep in mind BTW, that in the vintage VW hobby, the value of cars goes up exponentially with age. Value of like condition VWs 1950 vs 1970 are orders of magnitude.
Lastly I'll mention that those mega televised auction debacles (like BJ) are in no way representative of the actual, educated buyer market. They are for people with more money than brains.
