What I’m interested in is what will happen. Let’s assume that VW Group are the only ones caught. This despite truck manufacturers having used similar tricks in the past, having been caught, and having been fined.
Everyone in the Netherlands that I know believes that both fuel efficiency testing and CO2 testing are bogus when compared to real life performance. All we agree is that it is one way of comparing models of different manufacturers, but not necessarily the way that conforms with our driving styles or usage patterns. E.g. I drive a 2004 Volkswagen Touareg 2.5ltr Diesel – but daily highway mileage, and my wife drives a smaller, more economical 1.8ltr petrol car… but mostly short distances and around town, and I get much better mileage.
Two litre Diesel engines are amazing engines from a performance perspective. Excellent fuel efficiency combined with amazing torque, and therefore acceleration. In the Netherlands, 2 litre 4 cylinder diesel engines in VW Golfs may not feel sporty, but they zip and whiz around you at all times. These engines are used to yield from 250 NM all the way up to 400 NM of torque, and HP’s from 110 to 204. All depending on programming and few ancillaries. And they are also used in much bigger, heavier cars such as Passats and Transporters, and Audi's.
So clearly, by tweaking the software, I’m sure these engines could be made to pass tests, and indeed to perform much better in real-life situations with fewer bad emissions. Sure you’d lose some performance, but especially in the US, you’d hardly notice it in real-world usage. Remember, these little engines have power to spare.
The key issue is: is VW going to be punished for cheating, or for polluting? If it’s the latter, they should be allowed to reprogram engines, and that’s that. If you want to get vindictive, then we’d burn the company. The legal culture in the US, lawsuits and all, governments out to collect fines, it’s likely to go towards “lets punish VW for cheating”. And I fear they’ll go bankrupt.
Other European, Asian and perhaps even US car manufacturers (who probably have egg on their faces too because I think all manufacturers try to “game” the tests) would have a field day. Whole categories of cars suddenly available to pick up. GM with the Opel Astra, gunning for the Golf bracket, together with Toyota, Renault, Peugeot, Fiat and Ford. The Passat, the same.
However, we would lose some iconic market leaders. The Volkswagen UP, the Volkswagen Transporter. Will Porsche survive? Audi, Skoda and Seat will all suffer. And what about Bentley or Lamborghini? The landscape will change… for the worse. Over 800.000 people all around Europe directly or indirectly depend on VW group for their livelihood.
I would argue for a non-vindictive, non-punitive solution. Not only will market values of affected VW’s hold much better, and therefore damages to owners be reduced, but the cars, after reprogramming, will be just fine. And, let’s be car lovers: we don’t really want to lose these iconic brands and cars.
Peter
