I am involved in a business that makes the most powerful electric motors for the automotive and aerospace industry, measured in kW/kg. We provide motors at present to Ferrari for their SF90 hybrid and to McLaren for their Artura hybrid. Our motors are in every Koenigsegg hybrid. We not only have hyper car / super car clients, but we have a number of other programmes with Luxury, Performance and Premium manufacturers who operate in the space below the Supercars. These programmes cover hybrid and Electric Vehicle programmes. The technology is improving very quickly, and the current technology on sale reflects what was available 5 years ago. It is likely that a vastly superior generation of vehicles will launch post 2026, and most manufacturers are no longer spending money on ICE R&D but allocating all of their R&D budget to electrification and other subsidiary systems.
I am now 52, but am not planning to sell any of my fossil fuel cars. Even once the sale of cars with Internal Combustion Engines ("ICE") are banned after 2030 in the UK (and hybrids after 2035; many EU countries have the same rules), I expect that the majority of the in force population of vehicles will still require gasoline and diesel. They might become more heavily taxed (and hence expensive), but fossil fuels will still be around for some time to come. Also, it is doubtful that there will be enough electricity to power all of these electric vehicles (and all the other areas that will move from fossil fuel eg heating and cooking in the UK, which is mainly powered by gas at present).
The key issue raised by policymakers and legislators, seems to be the high perceived emissions of fossil fuel cars, however our Pagodas, which were built a long time ago, and now only create marginal emissions when used, are greener than any electric motor car that will be manufactured in future, from a total emissions point of view, since our Pagodas already exist, whereas future cars need all the raw materials to be mined and processed prior to being formed into motor cars.
If one looks at emissions and pollution over the total lifecycle from cradle to grave, EV's are even more polluting than fossil fuel cars given the amount of emissions and pollution for raw materials through to manufacture (and electricity generated in order to be able to use them). Fossil fuels have far greater energy per kg than any other form of fuel, so one uses more fuel per unit for alternatively fuelled vehicles. No one has yet done any good analysis on true emissions from alternative fuelled vehicles across the life cycle. The matter of electric aviation is even more of a pipe dream at this stage. Not to say it will never happen, but the laws of physics provide substantial challenges.
In summary, even with a fairly good handle on the technology and how it is developing, I think that it will be some time before I spend my own money on buying a Battery or hydrogen fuel cell electric motor car. This is against a backdrop where ICE will be banned for sale from 2030.
I expect to enjoy my Pagodas and other classics for some decades to come, even in the emissions obsessed UK.
As an aside for those interested, the UK only emits 0.9% of global emissions, vs 30% for China, 15% for US, c.10% for India and even 7% for Germany. For some reason we seem to believe that by bankrupting ourselves by going for zero emissions by 2050 (which is a legal requirement due to UK legislation passed), we will save the planet. Even if we go to zero today, the saving in CO2 emissions will be swamped by the planned increase in Chinese emissions in 2021. It is like trying to hold back the tide.....
