Author Topic: Price appreciation?  (Read 15093 times)

jammer

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #25 on: July 15, 2006, 03:34:14 »
Interesting thread.  It reminded me of what the Sage of Omaha, the incomparable, Warren Buffet once said when asked about how he feels when stock market prices decline.  He responded by asking a rhetorical question that went something like 'if you like eating Hamburger, would you want the price of ground beef to go up or down?'  So if one likes driving Pagodas, would they like their prices to go up or down?  I would like their prices to go down --even after I buy one.  Maybe then I can have two instead of one.

Riadh

rwmastel

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #26 on: July 15, 2006, 08:41:58 »
quote:
Originally posted by TR

I began subscribing to the SL Market Letter 20 years ago.  Let it lapse, but signed up again recently.  Glad I did.
That's what I figured!  The only other places that regularly have multiple W113's for sale is The Star and Hemmings, but not nearly as many as the SL Market Letter.

Rodd
Powell, Ohio, USA
1966 230SL, Euro, Auto, Leather, both  tops
1994 E420
Rodd

Did you search the forum before asking?
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Longtooth

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #27 on: July 17, 2006, 02:05:28 »
Supply / Demand dictates price appreciation, depreciation.  Higher prices reign for those 113's in which collectors/investors are interested, which are generally going to be those versions which are more the 'correct' examples of the original show-room car.  In the middle price ranges are those examples we refer to as 'drivers', which are more/less 'correct' in most manifestations... matching numbers, orig. engine blocks, appearance, no serious rust, clean chrome, maybe with some slight tarnish, decent paint jobs, soft-tops, clean, fresh interior's.  The lower priced examples are usually damaged goods in one way or another.... body panels replaced, rusted floorwells, trunks, hodged together engine repairs, numbers not matching, dubius history, etc.

Now, here's the kicker... all those decent, mid-priced 113 "drivers" out there are slowly but surely being bought up & retained by more and more 113 'lovers' & enthusiasts... or losing parts with time.  Over time this is reducing the available market supply of fully restorable original cars with correct parts.  The acceleration of this reduction in available supply occurs when replacement parts from the remaining 'parts' cars become dearer or the only replacements are OEM but not the original parts (tail-lights on pre-280SL's a case in point... among many others.... the wiper blades recently discussed on this site is another).  The effect of harder to find or higher priced replacement parts due to limited supply of them makes the cost of maintenance & restorations greater by more than the costs of general inflation.

As fewer correct versions of the 113 are available, and correct parts are dearer to come by, the supply diminishes at a greater rate... since those who already own their correct versions's are more reluctant to part with them as they're appreciating.

So what we'll see in the next 10-15 years is a separation in pricing.... faster rates of appreciation the more 'correct' a version is, and stagnation, or in fact depreciation in real dollars  for those that are not quite as correct to definitely lacking in correctness.  

There will be more of the less than correct versions available than the fully correct versions (as there are at present)... so the average price of 113's on the market will probably remain about the same with appreciation of the average price increasing only by the rate of general inflation or thereabouts. The average price of marketed 113's is therefore not a good indicator, imo, of whether price is appreciating for a given model/year/condition/mileage or not.

I bought my correct and original '67 250SL for $10k in mid '84... driver though it was, softtop not leaking yet, but in dire need of replacement, original faded interior and paint, some small cracks in the dash ... wood shellac starting to flake with general over-exposure to UV, a small dent in the front bumper, chrome tarnished but not bad or really deeply pitted anywhere, absolutely not a speck of rust at even the most rust-prone spots.  Some mild door dings on both doors. Seller was a lady teacher in Santa Clara Valley that had owned the car since '69 and had it serviced regularly by the same MB mechanic since she'ed had it... and all the original maintenance records were still in the file at the mechanic's shop!  She had retired a couple years earlier and decided to give the car up to somebody who'ed appreciate it as much as she had.... which is why she sold it to me for $10k... otherwise the going price at the time was $12k - $13k for that model/year/condition & mileage... 103k miles.  

OK... my intent was to refinish the car, inside and out.... I drove it for a couple of years to/from work and on some side-trips, but it had a weak cylinder and was using ~2x as much oil as it should have so I decided to have the engine redone before the cosmetics... but I couldn't quite afford it at that time, so I decided to wait a couple more years and parked the car in the garage... where it sat for the next 15 years while I procrastinated and spent / prioritized to put my kids thru college, buy rental income property, and make some attempts to prepare for the someday I'll retire or be fired for being too cantancerous or unyielding.

When I decided it was time ~5-6 years ago, I had the mechanical's taken care of and while engine/tranny were out, I had the cosmetic's handled... and when finished to that level... not everything had been done, it was valued conservatively at $29,500... so that original $10k cost plus ~$18k in restoration costs had basically come out even-steven. Since then I've put another $4k in it (some additional rechroming, some odds and ends) and it's most recent appraisal was for $36k last year... so allowing for a $2k-$3k possible overstatement on the appraised value, I've put into it no more than it's market value at any given point in time.  

Is it worth ~$35k?  Probably pretty close to it... though I'm not interested in selling and will continue to improve on the remaining items 'til it's up to full snuff again.  In about 10 years or so I'll give it to my daughter and son-in-law to drive and continue to maintain as she has appreciated this little SL since she was cognizant of driving anything.  By then, I figure it'll be worth close to or over $50k assuming I maintain it and finish all the fine details of the remaining restoration with the same level of quality and fussiness I've used so far.

What's plain old inflation over the next 10 years?  Figure 3% average annual inflation so 1.34x it's current value or approx $47k, so a value of $50k in 10 years isn't much real appreciation is it... pretty much just keeping pace with inflation.  If there's a resurgence in demand for the correct restored versions in the meantime, the price will hit circa $60k in 10 years... about 20% - 25% over the rate of inflation over that time.  I'd actually prefer that not happen though... since it will also force prices for parts up substantially.... hording will definitely occur... it's already begun in fact (pre-280SL tail-lights in excellent condition have appreciated dramatically in the last 5 years, as have pre-280SL beauty rings.. far far more than rates of inflation would dictate... so collectors and speculators on vintage car parts for the SL's have seriously begun to start collecting on the correct parts no longer available from OEM after-market mfg'ers).  I forgot to mention... there are fewer and fewer expert 113 mechanics around as time goes on as well... resulting in incorrect 'fixes' or mistakes that break things no longer easily available for those that aren't privy to a local expert at the 113 model's mechanicals and engine nuances.  I had some rubber mounting rings for the exhaust put on at an MB dealer (for free) about a year ago, and low and behold there was only one mechanic in a 20 man shop that even knew there was a special MB tool (and he had one in his box) to do this little task, 10 or 12 other mechanic's came over to look under the car while it was on the hoist... they we're all totally oblivious to how to diagnose, much less repair, maintain a pre '80's MB without their computer hook-up. So think about it over the next 10 years as those mechanics with expert experience on the '60's SL's start retiring, or go to meet their maker...  what's the impact going to be on ability to maintain correct mechanicals in the general market?  My guess is that it'll mean driving futher to repair facilities and expertise, higher repair pricing beyond that due to inflation on a higher hourly rate schedule, and an increasingly incorrect proportion of repairs on those that don't drive a little further or to get the right mechanics working on maintenance.  

Now, when was the last time you owned a car that didn't depreciate, but appreciated at or just above the rate of inflation while you continued to drive & enjoy it?  In 10 years it'll be a 50 year old sports car... a vintage car by any definition... still registered with and has the original California black plates it was originally issued btw....    

In short, I intend on keeping the car in it's correct condition, and thus, I believe, differentiating it from what will become an increasingly divergent market between the correct versions in restored original condition, and the others... mostly due to pride and my penchant for perfection.  And... we've all seen the cases where the 'correctness' of the car was or has been seriously compromised by the unknowing or speculators looking to turn the car for a fast buck.

PS. for those who knew about my oil heat exchanger leak... it was indeed in one of the seams... slow leak under pressure and thermal distortions when hot or cooling down.... now fixed and back together.... hopefully good for another 138k miles.... I'll take 50k miles and be more than happy though (knock on wood).  I still don't like the design though... from an engineering thermal gradiants and differentials in coefficients of thermal expansion over differing fixed end lengths of tubes to the exchanger.  Definitely boot-legged into the design as a quick engineering fix.

Longtooth
67 250SL US #113-043-10-002163
'02 SL500 Sport

Douglas

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #28 on: July 17, 2006, 12:49:36 »
Basically, what Keith Martin said in his Sports Car Market Guide writeup in 2004 still holds true:

http://www.sportscarmarket.com/profiles/2004/April/German/index.html

Douglas Kim
New York
USA

n/a

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #29 on: July 17, 2006, 21:30:17 »
Dear Members,
I agree, prices are going up for our cars, makes ense, given production numbers, fewer part cars, great styling, etc.

But question...why are prices skyrocketing for US Muscle Cars? Some are nice, OK, but hundred to two hundred thousand for a Mustang? Hemi? Is this weird or what? I mean, production numbers were always high and these cars weren't really well made or hand crafted (engineered well yes)...these weren't Ferraris or 300SLs...what gives? And does anyone think the bottom will fall out on muscle car values while ours remain stable? Appreciate opinions...Thanks.
R/
Joe
 :)

Raymond

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #30 on: July 18, 2006, 03:24:13 »
Joe, Perhaps it's just that American muscle cars appealed to a much wider audience of Baby Boomers who couldn't afford them when they were new.  

When I was growing up, there were no computers and the hobby of most American boys was pure speed.  The day you were eligible, you showed up at the DMV to get your license.  You drooled over the new SS 396, Boss 429, or Hemi 'Cuda, depending on whether you were a Chevy, Ford or Mopar fan.  All these cars were far more obtainable and easier to modify than anything metric.  XKEs were pretty but you never saw them at the dragstrip.  Ferraris were for rich old men and nobody could work on them.  Japanese cars were a not on the radar.  You and your high school classmates could take your Mom's hand-me-down Nova and with a few bolt-on parts could have a racy little V8 in a lightweight body that would turn 14s at the track and offer thrills at the burger joint.

The gut-wrenching acceleration of a muscle car offers a visceral exitement that most of the refined, euro cars don't.  And there's the noise.  Everything in Europe is so quiet.  Even the motorcycles sound like they're on Valium.  Euro metal can be rocket fast of course, they just don't vibrate your ribs when they pass.  That takes some of the appeal out of it.  

Now, these boomers have money to fulfill their adolescent dreams. So when a fellow who had a 55 Chevy with a 327 in high school makes a lot of money.  He wants the Corvette or Z-28 that he wished for in 1969.  He can pay for it without worry and when he looks out the windshield, he sees with 17-year-old eyes.  That part is priceless.

Ray
'68 280SL 4-spd Coupe
Ray
'68 280SL 5-spd "California" Coupe

harleydan

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #31 on: July 18, 2006, 05:59:14 »
Ray,

Very insightful.  Being a baby boomer, I too yearned (and still long for) for an American muscle car.  In fact, I even toyed with the idea selling my 280Sl to get one.  However, I have owned my 280SL for over 24 years and being part of the family it is hard to part with.  

I do however have a Harley and that sort of makes up for the lack of a shaking-and-noisey American muscle car.  Maybe one day.

Danny
1970 280SL Euro manual silver

n/a

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #32 on: July 18, 2006, 13:02:10 »
Hey Ray,
I agree...I love the comment about Euro motorcycles sound like they are on Valium! I understand many who never had money for those cars years ago, and I am one of them growing up in the 60s and 70s, now want them to re-live their youth. Also same reason old toys of the same era and earlier go for so much (trains, erector sets, even old lunch boxes!).
I guess I'm wondering if the prices for American muscle cars has grown so fast and is so inflated, in a few years, the bottom will drop out. I can't see how some Hemi or Shelby is going to always be priced as much or more than a Gullwing or Dino...
Joe

70chevelle

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Re: Price appreciation?
« Reply #33 on: July 19, 2006, 13:47:38 »
I will throw my 2 cents in on this, since I have both a Pagoda and a 70 Chevelle.  I feel that even though the production numbers for the overall vehicles/musclecars of the 60's & 70's were high, the specialty vehicles were not.  The LS6 Chevelle SS, the ZL1 Camaro & Chevelle (only speculation of 1 produced for the Chevelle) the Super B and Roadrunner with the wing and drop nose.  Any Chevy that came with a 409, or 427.  The Shelby Cobra Mustangs - GT 350 and 500's. Any Mopar that came with a hemi or 6 pack.  Back in the day, ordering a new vehicle was like ordering a pizza.  Pick your toppings!  You could end up with a one of a kind.  You could order the RS and/or SS and/or Z28 packages on the first generation Camaro's,  and don't get me started with the dealer installed options such as the Yenko's and others.  The values have just started to come around in past 10 years.  A lot of these vehicles have gone to the crusher, because they weren't worth the investment of restoring then.  If the general consensus is that parts for Pagoda's are cheap, muscle car part would be viewed as almost free!  I spent over $4,000 building the motor for my Chevelle.  I estimate it makes just under 400 hp.  That included all machine work, pistons, rods, crank, alum. heads, carb, etc.  I priced pistons for my Pagoda at $960 for the set and $189 for the rings.  Thats 25% of my budget, without any machine work, gaskets, bearings, etc. I will spend well over the $4,000 for a stock rebuild of a 6 cylinder.  

Bottom line is, I enjoy them both, but in different ways.  And I hope that the prices go through the roof for these cars.

70 Chevelle 13.7 @ 99.7
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